16 November 2015
Following
the attack in Paris, a strong consensus among TV experts on terrorism developed
that the methods used were sophisticated and almost certainly involved planning
and training by ISIS in the Middle East. That would seem to be true, but it's
important to realize it needn't be. ISIS has encouraged just this type of
operation as "home-grown" via the Internet. The nine terrorists could
just as well have been a group acting independantly. It would not be difficult
for them to get weapons. Instructions for making suicide explosive belts are
readily available on the Internet. Simultaneity of attacks can be achieved with
wristwatches. So-called "soft targets" are obvious choices.
Consider
the damage done by one or two individuals. David Hodarei of the U.K.'s Telegraph lists on the Internet 35 "most
notable" U.S. shootings between April 1999 and August 2015, which resulted
in the killing of 279 people. The killers, all home grown, acted either alone
or with one other person.
Imagine
what a small group of dedicated jihadis could do in the U.S. Let's say a small
group of perhaps two or three decide to show the reach of their cause by
attacking not in New York or Washington, D.C., but in the farthest reaches of
the U.S., in San Diego, California. They collect the necessary fully automatic weapons,
handguns with silencers, and ammunition. They buy in small quantities over a
period of time. Under no pressure from schedule restraints, they make suicide
vests. For their target they select a movie theater. The Ken in Kensington is
ideal: 575 seats in front of one screen. They wait until the theater is showing
a film with a lot of gunfire and explosions. They attend one showing to learn
when the sound is at its best.
On
the fateful evening, dressed in casual clothes, they walk into the theater, the
automatic weapons held along their legs. They silence security with their
handguns. Taking up pre-arranged positions at the back of the theater, the
killers kneel and begin spraying rounds just over the top of the seats. It
takes a while before viewers realize the sound of gunfire is not from the
movie, but real. Screaming starts and people begin dropping to the floor.
Seeing this, the shooters walk slowly down the aisles and start spraying
bullets into those on the floor between the rows of seats.
Alerted
by cell phone calls from some of the patrons, the police arrive and take on the
killers. The jihadis and perhaps some police are killed along with several
hundred moviegoers. The terrorists have made their point: we have no place to
hide.
ISIS
is bound to raise the stakes and come up with money to buy a suitcase atomic
bomb from North Korea. We can delay that day by keeping ISIS away from the oil
and the poppies. Eventually, a bomb may be smuggled into the U.S. If so, Washington
D.C. might suffer the same fate as Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Washington Monument,
Lincoln Memorial, Congress, the Supreme Court, the White House and all their
inhabitants gone. It can't happen? Why not?
What
can we do to minimize the risk? We can do the obvious.
Internally,
we can set in motion a system whereby those who have become disengaged from
society are detected and treated. Here, the first line of defense is the family,
and we can urge people to get those individuals reported and treated. Second is
the schools. All students should be scrutinized for any signs of social disengagement.
From
outside threats we can screen visitors and monitor them while they are here.
We
can attempt to counter ISIS Internet propaganda with our story. Finally, we can
begin to try to convert the jihadists to our way of thinking. We remember
"hearts and minds," but this time we need a far greater effort. This
is both the most difficult and the most necessary work before us. It is,
perhaps, the only answer.
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17 November 2015
Late
yesterday we learned ISIS has selected Washington D.C. as their next target.
Their having already acquired an atomic weapon seems an extremely remote
possibility, but they could easily mount an attack similar to the one in Paris.
On the other hand, how many sticks of dynamite would it take to topple the
Washington Monument?